Incremental’s retail media predictions for 2025
As we enter a new year, we took a few minutes to reflect on what’s ahead for retail media networks (RMNs). Here, a few of Incremental’s leaders offer up predictions for 2025.
RMNs will race away from the bottom and incorporate brand and the upper-funnel
As onsite inventory becomes more and more exhausted, and consumers continue to move their discovery offsite (specifically onto social networks and other non-traditional buying avenues), RMNs will increasingly have to prove value. They will have to show value in increasing base sales by incorporating more upper-funnel strategies to justify their data/targeting fees to advertisers. The networks that can identify and layer brand strategies and brand positioning with more sophisticated consumer segmentation inside their networks will be the ones that increase their value to advertisers and survive the increasingly saturated RMN landscape. —Ryan Johnson, vice president, strategic accounts
Advertisers will shift from all-in-one platforms to flexible best-of-breed tech-stacks
Commerce-tech will go the way of ad-tech and mar-tech. Initially, advertisers look for platforms that consolidate capabilities across a wide range of use cases to streamline workflows. This usually gives way to brands wanting to build an integrated tech stack for each capability area, selecting best-of-breed partners to fill that gap. This means that tech providers in the space need to be keenly aware of what they do better than everyone else and be open to partnering/integrating across the rest. —Skye Frontier, executive vice president
Online and in-store media will integrate
The first big strides toward a scalable solution that integrates online and in-store media vehicles will happen—most likely Walmart/Vizio. This will be a multiyear dynamic that will have a wide spectrum of successes and failures. —Alex Juday, senior vice president of commerce strategy
RMN proliferation trend will begin to reverse
The first multi-retailer “collaborations” will occur to create a more attractive offering for brands versus the titans of Amazon and Walmart. I’m not ready to believe retail media ever turns programmatic, but I think a new hybrid solution could be successful, albeit very difficult to pull off. —Alex Juday, senior vice president of commerce strategy
New retail media players will emerge
In 2025, RMNs will continue to grow and diversify, moving beyond the dominance of major players. Non-traditional entrants like consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands, streaming platforms, and delivery services such as Uber and DoorDash will further join the mix, broadening the scope of retail media. —Alan Osetek, strategic advisor
Entertainment commerce verticals will surge
Entertainment-centric commerce verticals continue to push into the space and won’t be able to be ignored much longer. Prominence will hinge entirely on shopping behavior/intent by category. —Alex Juday, senior vice president of commerce strategy
Connected television will grow in significance
Connected television (CTV) will play an increasingly prominent role, with RMNs integrating seamlessly to deliver shoppable ad experiences (for example, Amazon and NFL Thursday Night Football and Walmart's acquisition of Vizio). These innovations will allow viewers to transition directly from inspiration to purchase, transforming how customers interact with brands across screens. —Alan Osetek, strategic advisor
Measurement capability gaps will widen
Without advanced measurement solutions built to understand commerce, brands will begin to have significant capability gaps versus competitors who do. As brands empowered by these insights move money into the right places and the right campaigns, it will have a ripple effect and cause competitive reactions via both rule-based automation and human influence towards return on advertising spend (ROAS)/incremental return on advertising spend (iROAS)/cost-per-click (CPC) changes that end up causing the opposite of intended impact. —Alex Juday, senior vice president of commerce strategy
The importance of measurement will increase
As this ecosystem expands, investment in measurement and RMN optimization/forecast tools will transition from “nice to have” to critical. Retailers, brands, and agencies will prioritize advanced RMN attribution solutions, including multi-touch models, forecasting models, real-time insights, and optimization technologies. Additionally, there will be a stronger focus on omnichannel incrementality models, bridging RMNs with other digital channels like search engine marketing (SEM), social media, demand-side platforms (DSPs), and CTV, ensuring a holistic view of campaign effectiveness. —Alan Osetek, strategic advisor
Incrementality will be the third wave of innovation in retail media’s growth
Industry analysts like Andrew Lipsman have suggested that unlocking incrementality measurement will be crucial for brands seeking a competitive edge. This will only be amplified in 2025. Unlike traditional metrics like ROAS, incrementality goes deeper by helping brands determine the true impact of their shoppable media and retailer-powered media efforts on sales. In marketplaces where it can be challenging to disentangle which strategies drive conversions, brands that successfully implement incrementality into their media buying and planning workflows will find themselves with a significant competitive advantage. —Skye Frontier, executive vice president
